Rabobank Boosts European Gas Price Forecasts Amid Hormuz Disruptions
Rabobank has raised its forecast for European gas prices, citing prolonged disruptions to Hormuz flows and low storage levels. The bank now predicts TTF (Title Transfer Facility) will reach €72/MWh in Q4 2026, up from previous estimates. This is due to a slower recovery of Qatari LNG supply than initially expected.
Rabobank warns that further infrastructure curtailments could push prices into the €50-60/MWh range for much of next year. However, they still anticipate prices to ease to the mid-€40s in 2027. The bank's JKM (Japan Korea Marker) forecast remains around $15/MMBtu for 2027 as a whole.
The price hikes are largely attributed to low storage levels and increased dependence on LNG supply. Rabobank emphasizes that lasting damage to the Yamal LNG terminal, similar to the Ras Laffan terminal earlier this year, would significantly drive up prices, potentially back into ranges last seen in 2022.