Record Copper Prices Mask Coming Supply Crunch
Global copper mine production is expected to peak in 2030 at 33 million tonnes, according to S&P Global's study from January 2026. This forecast comes as prices for copper are reaching record highs, trading at $14,373 per tonne on September 4, 2026.
The world's largest copper mine, Escondida, produced 1,261,000 tonnes in FY26 but is expected to produce only 900,000 to 1,100,000 tonnes a year from FY28 to FY31, which is around 25% below the 2026 output. This decline is attributed to falling ore grades and long lead times for new capacity.
BHP's Chief Executive Officer Brandon Craig has outlined a plan to increase copper production by around 40% by FY35 through a pipeline of projects across Chile, Australia, and Argentina. However, this remedy may be too late to address the expected shortfall in demand, which is projected to reach 10 million tonnes annually by 2040.