Record US LNG Exports Face Endurance Test as High Gas Prices Bite

US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have reached record levels in 2026, with over 73 million tonnes shipped between January and July. This surge has helped offset disrupted Middle Eastern supplies, but high prices are beginning to test buyer appetite.

The disruption in Middle East LNG supplies, mainly due to the conflict involving Iran and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has increased competition for Atlantic Basin cargoes. As a result, Asian LNG prices rose sharply, reaching around $22 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on July 22.

Higher prices are starting to influence purchasing decisions in Asia, with Kpler predicting that prolonged prices above $18-$20/MMBtu will discourage discretionary restocking and increase the use of alternative fuels. India is also expected to experience demand pressure due to high prices making LNG less competitive for price-sensitive industrial users.

European gas markets have also been affected by the disruption in Middle Eastern LNG supplies, with the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark climbing sharply amid concerns over reduced LNG availability. European LNG imports declined in July, indicating that buyers are becoming more cautious about taking additional cargoes while prices remain elevated.