Red Sea Tensions Expose Vulnerabilities in Alternative Oil Export Routes

Tensions in the Red Sea have exposed vulnerabilities in alternative oil export routes that were touted as a safeguard against disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, with around 20 million barrels per day passing through it, and about 80% of that volume heading to Asian markets. Alternative routes such as Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline (Petroline) have been highlighted as a potential solution in case of disruptions.

Petroline connects production centers in eastern Saudi Arabia with the port of Yanbu on its western coast, allowing crude oil to reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, security risks around Bab el-Mandeb and the northern Red Sea have raised concerns about the safety of shipments beyond Yanbu.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that around 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 80% of that volume heading to Asian markets. Even if a disruption in Hormuz is partly offset through Petroline, continued shipments to Asia would remain dependent on safe passage through Bab el-Mandeb.