Rio Tinto's Copper Surge: Earnings Mix Shifts as Growth Pipeline Expands
Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) has undergone a significant transformation in its earnings mix, driven by copper, aluminium, and lithium taking on a larger role alongside its dominant iron ore operations.
In H1 2026, the company reported an 84% increase in copper underlying EBITDA to US$5.7 billion, with copper prices rising 39% and production at Oyu Tolgoi climbing 31%. This surge is a notable shift for Rio Tinto, which has traditionally been defined by its Pilbara iron ore operations.
Copper, aluminium, and lithium now account for over 50% of group underlying EBITDA, indicating the company's increasing diversification across commodities linked to electrification, infrastructure, and energy transition demand. The growth pipeline is substantial, with Simandou, copper, and lithium projects providing a multi-year growth story.
Rio Tinto has also reported higher cash generation, productivity improvements, and increased shareholder distributions. However, operational risks remain, particularly at Kennecott in Utah and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, while the company's exposure to Chinese steel demand and commodity price movements still poses a significant challenge.