Russia Cuts Oil Output Forecast Amid Ukraine War Fallout
Russia has downgraded its oil production forecast for this year to a 17-year low due to the ongoing war with Ukraine, according to a government draft forecast seen by Reuters. The country's crude oil production is expected to decline by 17.2 million metric tons this year to 494.2 million tons or 9.88 million barrels per day, its lowest since 2009.
The European Union has banned most of Russian oil and fuel imports since the war began in February 2022, reducing a significant source of revenue for Moscow. Intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's oil refineries have also led to fuel production declines, triggering gasoline shortages across the country.
Crude production is expected to recover to 500 million tons next year but will still be below previous forecast levels. Output in 2028 and 2029 is seen rising further but remains below 2025 levels.