Russia-Ukraine Port Strikes Send Global Grain Prices Soaring

Russia and Ukraine have escalated their strikes on each other's ports, driving grain prices to nearly a three-year high. The conflict is particularly concerning for global wheat trade, as these two countries account for about 30% of worldwide demand.

Russia remains the world's largest wheat exporter, while Ukraine ranks fifth. Together, they supply around 17% of total global grain exports, which could be reduced by 86 million tonnes this year if the strikes continue. Of that amount, 52 million tonnes would come from Russian shipments and another 34 million tonnes from Ukraine.

The impact on wheat prices has been significant, with futures rising to nearly a three-year high. Even with alternative routes for Ukrainian grain exports by rail and via the Danube, only about 17 million tonnes could be compensated. This is particularly concerning for Ukraine, as agriculture accounts for around 60% of its export revenue.