Russia-Ukraine War Disrupts Black Sea Wheat Trade
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has led to a significant spike in wheat prices due to disruptions in the Black Sea region. According to Andrey Sizov, CEO of SovEcon, Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports have been severely impacted by the attacks on each other's ports.
Since July, Ukraine and Russia have exchanged blows on the Black Sea, causing a substantial decrease in available wheat supply. This has led to a 35% increase in wheat futures prices since the start of 2026, with an additional 20% rise within the last two months alone.
Russia and Ukraine are the largest suppliers of grains to Africa, accounting for approximately 44% of the continent's imported wheat in 2024. North African countries, particularly Egypt, rely heavily on these imports, with over 82% of Egyptian wheat imports coming from Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026.
Sizov warns that higher wheat prices will likely lead to increased food inflation across Africa, which is already experiencing rising staple food prices due to elevated transportation costs and fuel price hikes.