Russian Gas Exit Redraws Europe's Gas Pricing Map

The European natural gas market has undergone significant changes since the end of Russian pipeline gas transit through Ukraine in early 2025. A new report by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) reveals that this shift has led to a lasting change in the pricing hierarchy across the continent.

According to the study, northwestern European markets such as France's TRF, Belgium's ZTP, the Dutch TTF benchmark, and Britain's NBP have consistently become Europe's cheapest gas hubs. In contrast, Germany's THE trades at a modest premium, while prices rise progressively further east.

The report argues that this pricing pattern reflects a structural shift rather than a temporary market disruption. It notes that even the 2026 US-Iran conflict, which triggered a sharp spike in oil and gas prices across Europe, did not alter the hierarchy of prices between western and eastern hubs.