Russian Grain Exports Face Uncertainty Amid Attacks

Russian farmers and market analysts are skeptical about the government's measures to maintain grain exports, despite efforts to reroute some exports, scrap a grain export duty, and buy grain for state stocks.

The government wants to support Russian grain exports and domestic prices by granting railroad transport subsidies and loan extensions to producers. However, analysts say these measures will not change the supply and demand balance.

Sovecon's Andrey Sizov said that until logistics in the Black and Azov Seas improve, grain will continue to accumulate within Russia, maintaining pressure on domestic prices.

Russian Grain Union lobby's Arkady Zlochevsky predicted that rerouting exports from the south to the Baltic Sea would add $30 to $50 per metric ton to cargoes and not rescue volumes. He also warned of a 'catastrophe' if exports are paused until the end of the year due to attacks.

The People's Farmer lobby called on the government to cut the winter sowing area this year to cope with the oversupply of wheat, but Agriculture Ministry's Borovoi described it as a breach of food security.