Russian Grain Exports Stymied by Conflict and Logistics Challenges

Russian farmers and market analysts expressed skepticism over the government's measures to maintain grain exports amid the war in Ukraine.

The conflict has halted Black Sea trade, leaving a surplus of grain within Russia that is driving down domestic prices.

Sovecon analyst Andrey Sizov said subsidies and state interventions will not change the supply and demand balance and called for a permanent abolition of the export duty, which was introduced in 2021.

The government has proposed rerouting exports through alternative routes, including the Baltic Sea and Caspian Sea, but analysts say this will come at a higher cost, adding $30 to $50 per metric ton to cargoes.