Russian Oil Exports Plummet Amid Black Sea Strikes

Russian oil export volumes have been declining sharply due to the threat of Ukrainian strikes in the Black Sea. For five consecutive weeks, not a single cargo of oil has been loaded at the key oil terminal in Novorossiysk.

According to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, exports fell to 3.58 million barrels per day over the four weeks to August 16. This is the steepest decline for any comparable period since the start of the war in Ukraine.

The damage from Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries has not had the same effect as previous strikes, possibly because Ukraine has also targeted vessels and ports used to export oil. A tanker that was moored at the Sheskharis oil terminal during an August 12 attack was still at the berth in satellite images from August 17.

The decline is affecting Russian oil production, with estimates showing output fell last month to 8.89 million barrels per day, the lowest level in six years. This is almost 1 million barrels per day below the production level allowed under Russia's long-term agreement with OPEC+ allies.