Russian Wheat Exports at Risk from Ukrainian Strikes
Russian wheat exports by sea are at risk due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics. According to analytics firm Kpler, one-third of Russia's wheat exports could be blocked.
The Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov route is particularly affected, where about a third of Russia's wheat exports are shipped. Shipping was suspended in this area, making it difficult for Russia to redirect its volumes to Black Sea ports due to limited capacity in railways, road transport, and port infrastructure.
As a result, the export surplus of Russian wheat may face a logistical 'bottleneck.' The domestic market is already feeling the effects, with grain purchase prices declining. Third-grade wheat fell by 1.3%, fourth-grade wheat by 2.3%, and fifth-grade wheat by 2%. Barley prices dropped by 6.5%, and sunflower seeds by 2.1%.
Kpler believes that a temporary decline in Russian exports could create opportunities for other suppliers, primarily EU countries, in the markets of the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Analysts warn that Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure, posing risks to grain exports from Ukraine. The Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Taras Vysotsky stated that the situation with grain exports is more difficult than in 2022.