Russian Wheat Exports to Plummet Due to Logistical Constraints

Russian wheat exports are expected to be severely impacted by logistical constraints following the Ukrainian attacks on Novorossiysk grain terminals in August. According to ASAP Agri's Senior Grain Market Analyst, Inna Stepanenko, the capacity of Baltic ports is limited, with transshipment programs for Russian wheat already largely booked through November.

Under a pessimistic scenario, export volumes could drop sharply, reaching only around 27.3 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026/27, compared to the USDA's forecast of 46 MMT and local analysts' estimates of 44.5-44.6 MMT.

In this scenario, wheat exports could fall to around 21 MMT if disruptions persist, while alternative suppliers such as India may benefit from reduced Black Sea availability.