Russia's Black Sea Port Shutdown Sends Grain Prices Plummeting

Russia's grain market has taken a sharp hit due to the shutdown of key grain terminals in the Azov-Black Sea basin. According to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, these ports were responsible for up to 88% of Russia's seaborne grain exports.

This disruption has led to lower domestic prices, with Grade 4 wheat in southern Russia falling by 19% to RUB 8,900-10,000/t in just one week. Prices have also declined by around 8% in central Russia and 3% in the Volga region.

The forecast for seaborne grain exports in August has been cut from 3.1 mln tons to 1.8 mln tons, further exacerbating the situation. A large harvest, estimated at 140 mln tons, is being compounded by limited export capacity, resulting in grain accumulation at elevators and increased storage costs.