Russia's Grain Export Capacity Halted by Ukraine Strikes

Ukraine's military strikes have severely impacted Russia's grain export capacity in the Black Sea region, shutting down more than 90% of its ability to ship grain. The disruption has occurred during the peak season for Russian grain exports, which typically runs from August to December.

The three grain terminals at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk have suspended operations, with each terminal capable of handling around 25 million metric tons of grain exports annually. Navigation in the Sea of Azov has been halted since July, and two other terminals in Novorossiysk have also stopped operating.

Only one port, Tuapse, remains operational in the region, according to Andrei Sizov, managing director of SovEcon agricultural consultancy. He estimates that grain exports bring around $15 billion into Russia annually, with the Azov-Black Sea basin accounting for 88% of its maritime grain shipments last season.

The disruption has significant implications for Russian farmers, who have seen domestic prices fall due to limited export demand. Fourth-class wheat is now selling for around 12,000 rubles ($142) per ton, down from 15,000 rubles ($177) a year earlier.