Russia's Grain Export Infrastructure Remains Severely Restricted

Russia's grain export infrastructure remains severely restricted due to ongoing conflicts on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Navigation through the Azov-Don Canal and Kerch Strait is blocked, preventing key ports from maintaining stable grain shipments.

The Azov ports account for nearly 25% of Russia's grain exports, while operations at three key terminals in Novorossiysk have been halted since August 12. The combined capacity of these terminals is estimated at around 26.1 million tons per year, equivalent to roughly half of Russia's wheat exports.

As a result, export disruptions are putting pressure on Russia's domestic market, with grain purchase prices falling by 20-25%. If Black Sea exports remain blocked for an extended period, Russia could fail to supply 30-35 million tons of wheat to the global market, while its overall grain exports in 2026/27 could decline significantly.