Russia's Grain Export Potential Severely Impacted by Disruptions

Russia's grain export potential is severely impacted by disruptions to shipments through the Black Sea. According to UkrAgroConsult, alternative routes can only handle about a quarter of Russia's seasonal grain export capacity. The combined capacity of the Baltic, Caspian, and other alternative routes is estimated at 10.75-12.25 mln tons, equivalent to 23-26% of the potential 44-45 mln tons of exports per season.

The Baltic remains the main alternative route, with a port capacity of 1.1 mln tons in Vysotsk and 0.15 mln tons in St. Petersburg. A new terminal at Tekhnotrans is scheduled to be commissioned in the fourth quarter of 2026, but even with infrastructure expansion, Baltic capacity remains below volumes traditionally shipped through southern ports.

Using the Baltic route significantly increases logistics costs, with wheat prices assessed at around $250-260/t FOB compared to about $212/t at Black Sea ports. This adds roughly $40-50/t to logistics costs, making alternative routes less appealing for grain exports.