Russia's Grain Exports Plummet Amid Port Disruptions

Russia's agricultural sector is facing significant challenges due to disruptions in port logistics, leading to a growing domestic surplus of grain. This has resulted in lower prices for wheat, barley, sunflower seeds, and soybeans, with declines ranging from 3.3% to 8.5% in just one week.

The accumulation of agricultural products inside Russia is particularly evident in the Rostov region, which accounts for nearly 10% of Russia's grain harvest. Regional authorities have introduced a state of emergency amid difficulties exporting agricultural products.

Rusagro, one of Russia's largest agribusiness groups, has seen its net profit collapse by 99% in the first half of 2026, from 4.8 billion rubles (approximately $59 million) to 55.88 million rubles (about $690,000).

The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) reports that wheat exports could fall by a further 52.1% to 62.5% in September, reaching between 1.8 million and 2.3 million tons, which would mark Russia's lowest September wheat export volume since 2010.

The Russian government is considering measures to alleviate the situation, including state purchases, subsidized loans, subsidies, and lending secured against unsold crops, as well as eliminating the grain export duty and compensating producers for higher transportation costs.