Russia's Grain Exports Plummet Amid Terminal Shutdowns
The shutdown of key grain terminals in Russia's Azov-Black Sea basin has led to a significant drop in purchase prices, forcing the country to revise its export plans. According to market intelligence, the price of fourth-grade wheat in southern Russia fell by 19% over the past week, from 8,900-10,000 rubles per metric ton (about $105-120) to 7,130-8,400 rubles. This has resulted in a reduced export forecast for August, down from 3.1 million metric tons to 1.8 million metric tons.
The decline in grain prices is not limited to Russia's southern regions. In the central part of the country, grain prices have fallen by about 8%, while in the Volga region, prices fell by 3%. The cost of road transport to deep-water ports also dropped by 10.4% (from 12,000 rubles per metric ton) due to decreased demand.
Russia's grain harvest is expected to reach 140 million metric tons this year, but the reduced export forecast and low prices pose significant risks for farmers with limited storage capacity. They may be forced to sell their grain at below-market prices or accumulate unsold stock in elevators, leading to increased storage costs.