Russia's Oil Output Forecast Plummeted to 17-Year Low Amid Ukraine Conflict
Russia's oil production outlook for 2026 has been lowered to its lowest level in 17 years, according to a draft forecast from the Russian government. The continued impact of the conflict with Ukraine on Russia's economy and energy infrastructure is becoming increasingly apparent.
The forecast, which will be finalized at the end of September, predicts that Russia's crude oil production in 2026 will decrease by 17.2 million metric tons year-on-year to 494.2 million metric tons, equivalent to 9.88 million barrels per day.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged in June that oil production would decline this year, attributing the drop to unplanned refinery maintenance.
External attacks have continued to escalate, with Ukraine increasing drone attacks on Russian domestic refineries, resulting in a contraction of fuel production and domestic gasoline supply shortages. Data shows that Ukrainian armed forces launched at least 21 attacks on Russian refineries in August, setting a monthly record for such attacks.