Russia's Oil Output Hits 17-Year Low Amid Ukraine Conflict and EU Sanctions
Russia's oil production has taken a significant hit due to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. According to a government draft, Russia's oil production projection for this year has been reduced to a 17-year low. The draft forecast also revised fuel export estimates for 2026 and 2027, with a decrease of between 16 million and 20 million tons compared to the previous forecast published in May.
The European Union has imposed sanctions on most Russian oil and fuel imports, which has further reduced Russia's revenue from these exports. The intensification of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's oil refineries in recent months has also contributed to a decrease in fuel output, leading to depleted fuel supplies across the country.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged in June that the country's oil production had decreased since the start of the year, citing unscheduled refinery shutdowns as a contributing factor. The draft forecast indicates that Russia's crude oil exports could reach 244.7 million tons this year, an increase from 230.08 million tons in 2025, but fuel exports are expected to expand to 113.1 million tons next year, which is almost 13 million tons below the 2025 level.