Russia's Oil Production Forecast Drops to 17-Year Low Amid Ukraine War

Russia has revised its oil production forecast for 2026 to a 17-year low, according to a draft government report. The country's crude oil production is expected to decline by 17.2 million metric tons this year, reaching 494.2 million metric tons or 9.88 million barrels per day. This is the lowest figure since 2009.

The revised forecast also includes a drop in fuel exports, with crude oil exports predicted to reach 244.7 million metric tons this year, compared to 230.8 million metric tons in 2025. However, these exports are expected to decline going forward, reaching 232.5 million metric tons in 2027 and 216.6 million metric tons in 2028-2029.

To address the shortage in the domestic market, Russia has imposed a ban on diesel fuel exports and restrictions on the sale of gasoline and jet fuel abroad. As a result, fuel exports are expected to decline by 27.3 million metric tons this year, compared to previous forecasts.