Russia's Oil Production to Recover as Refineries Resume Operations

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says the dip in oil production is only temporary, as output is expected to recover once refineries come back online after unscheduled maintenance. According to Novak, 'this is a temporary phenomenon, and, generally, oil production will increase as the refineries resume operations and the situation stabilizes.'

The remarks were made at an economic forum in Vladivostok on Thursday, where Novak also said that fuel supply has improved this week. The improvement comes amid ongoing efforts to alleviate concerns over refinery outages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks.

Russia's oil production has been suffering due to the attacks, which have crippled both refinery operations and export capacities. As a result, Russia has banned diesel exports until the end of September, further tightening global middle distillate markets.

Consultancy Rystad Energy has revised its Russian crude production forecast to average 8.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, before declining to around 8.6 million bpd in 2027, down by about 90,000 bpd from the previous forecast.