Russia's War Effort on Brink of Collapse as EU Freezes Oil Price Cap

Russian President Vladimir Putin's special military operation in Ukraine is facing severe consequences. Over 1,600 days into the conflict, more than 450,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, with another 1 million wounded or missing. The monthly casualty rate has reached a critical point, exceeding the number of replacements through recruitment.

Ukraine's drone capabilities have significantly improved, leading to sustained attacks on Russia's oil and gas infrastructure since early 2024. The cumulative damage has nearly reached 43% of Russia's operating refinery capacity.

The EU has agreed to freeze the oil price cap at $44.10 per barrel for at least another year, affecting Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products exported to third countries outside the EU. Additionally, new sanctions aim to target Russian oil sanctions evasion and support services to shadow fleet tankers.

Ex-prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov warned that increased oil sanctions could tip Russia's economy into crisis by the end of this year. Former Governor of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina previously declared that Russia's 'free resources' were exhausted, highlighting a critical depletion of labour, manufacturing capacity, and National Wealth Fund assets.