Rystad Cuts Russia Crude Output Forecast Amid Sanctions, Drone Attacks

Rystad Energy has cut its forecast for Russia's crude oil production to 8.95 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026, down from a previous estimate of 9.85 million bpd.

This revised forecast reflects the mounting pressure on Russian output due to tighter Western sanctions, Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and ports, and growing disruptions at western export terminals.

Rystad's vice president, Daria Melnik, noted that refinery runs in June and July 2026 were among the lowest recorded in two decades, with throughput averaging around 4 million bpd from July to December - nearly 30% below the 2016-2023 seasonal average.

The energy research firm estimates Russia's spare production capacity at around 620,000 bpd in 2026, but warns that much of this comes from aging wells shut in during recent production cuts, which will be harder to bring back online.