Saudi Arabia Strikes at Heart of New Gulf Doctrine: Balancing Force and Diplomacy

Saudi Arabia's recent strikes against Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) mark a significant shift in Riyadh's approach to Baghdad, according to a report by the Middle East Council on Global Affairs.

The July 28 strikes, which killed at least 20 fighters and wounded 32, were in response to drone attacks launched from Iraqi soil against Saudi oil facilities. The incident highlights a new doctrine emerging in the Gulf region, where states are willing to use force inside Iraq without Baghdad's consent.

This shift is part of a broader strategy that aims to distinguish between the Iraqi state and its armed groups. However, this distinction is increasingly contested, particularly with the PMF being a state institution funded by the government.

The Saudi approach relies on two key components: striking militias without weakening the state, and embracing the state itself through diplomacy and support. The success of this strategy will depend on Riyadh's ability to provide Baghdad with sufficient warning before striking, allowing Iraqi forces to act against launch cells themselves.