September WASDE: Corn Prices May Rise as Tightening Supplies Loom

The upcoming September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA on September 11 could significantly impact corn prices for farmers. The report's release will provide a revised assessment of corn, soybean, and wheat supplies following a month of changing crop conditions. A lower corn yield estimate could further tighten new-crop ending stocks at a time when exports remain firm.

Unlike earlier projections based on statistical models, the September WASDE will incorporate additional objective field information from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, including plant populations and ears per acre from the 10 largest corn-producing states. This will provide markets with a clearer picture of yield potential and account for regional weather differences and late-season crop development.

Corn will likely command much of the market's attention, particularly if USDA lowers its current national corn yield estimate of 180.7 bushels per acre. Private estimates from Pro Farmer's August crop tour have already estimated a lower yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, creating pressure on the government's production assumptions.