Silver Deficit Persists Despite Bearish Technical Signal

Silver prices have continued to rise despite facing its sixth consecutive supply deficit. According to the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, the global silver market is projected to experience a 46.3 million ounce deficit in 2026, up 15% from 2025.

This projected deficit has been persistent for six years now, with physical demand exceeding available supply despite weaker market sentiment. The Silver Institute data shows that since 2021, 762.1 million ounces have been drawn from above-ground bullion stocks to cover the supply deficit.

Currently, silver is trading at $58.31/oz, up 1.2% on the day but still 52% below its January 2026 record high of $121.62. Despite a bearish technical signal in late July with the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day moving average, the projected supply deficit suggests that short-term technical weakness has not changed the longer-term supply outlook.

The next key catalyst for silver prices will be this Friday's US jobs report, which is expected to impact Fed rate-hike expectations. A stronger-than-expected result could push silver back toward $56, while a confirmed close above $62 could lift silver toward $74.80.