Silver Price Drops Amid Bank Cuts, But Deficit Concerns Remain

Silver's price dropped to around $58.24 an ounce in mid-July, but experts say this doesn't necessarily mean the metal is becoming more abundant.

JPMorgan initially cut its silver forecast to $60-$65 in July, and other banks like UBS, ING, and Commerzbank followed suit with similar price cuts. However, despite these downgrades, none of these institutions claimed that the market has turned into a surplus.

In fact, even after UBS trimmed its deficit estimate by 80%, it still sits above the official 2026 shortfall of 46.3 million ounces from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. The banks are actually converging down towards this number, not away from it.

This distinction is crucial in understanding the market's dynamics. A price-target cut indicates a bank thinks the next few months will be soft, but it tells us almost nothing about whether the world is running short of silver. Despite the recent cuts, the published analyst consensus still sits above $60, and every target on the list, including the most bearish one, is higher than the current price.