Silver Prices at Crossroads as Geopolitics and Solar Shifts Collide
Silver prices have been hovering near $61.50 an ounce as traders closely watch this level for any potential movement. A modest bounce on Wednesday provided some relief after a stretch of choppy sessions, but beneath the surface, the market is being pulled in opposing directions.
Geopolitics are dominating the short-term picture, with hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis emerging this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested a deal to reopen the waterway could come within days, while Qatar reported advanced mediation between Washington and Tehran. However, the situation on the ground remains precarious, with a freighter being struck by an unidentified projectile on Tuesday.
Looking past the headlines, a quieter but potentially more consequential transformation is underway in the photovoltaic industry. Solar manufacturers are pivoting to nickel-copper plating technology, which allows producers of modern TOPCon solar cells to slash their silver usage dramatically. Industry analyses project that solar-related silver demand will fall by roughly 19 percent in 2026, with large Asian manufacturers already transitioning to silver-free or heavily reduced modules.
The broader supply picture remains strained, with the World Silver Survey 2026 projecting a deficit of 46.3 million ounces this year. Global demand is forecast at 1,112.6 million ounces for 2026, while supply stands at 1,066.4 million, both down roughly two percent year over year.