Silver Prices Plummet Amid Fed's Hawkish Pivot and Rising Real Rates
Silver prices dropped to $57.90 per ounce on Friday, marking a 3.54 percent decline in a session that highlighted the impact of monetary policy on the metal's fundamentals. The price retreat pushed the psychologically important $60 threshold further out of reach and widened the gap to January's year-to-date high of $121.78 by 52.46 percent.
The sell-off was triggered by a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve, with data showing an 82.1 percent probability of a rate hike in September. This shift has led to rising real rates, making non-yielding assets like silver less attractive and increasing the US dollar's strength. Elevated energy costs due to conflicts in the Red Sea and with Iran have also fueled persistent inflation, leaving the Fed with little room to signal near-term easing.
The technical picture for silver has deteriorated accordingly, with the metal now trading 11.32 percent below its 50-day moving average of $65.29. The Relative Strength Index sits at 42, indicating waning buying momentum. Despite brief recovery attempts earlier in the week, the broader weakness that has defined silver's trajectory since the start of the year remains.
Beneath the short-term rate-driven volatility, the fundamental supply story for silver remains tight. The Silver Institute projects a global supply deficit for 2026, with the shortfall expected to reach approximately 46.3 million ounces. Mine production is stagnating due to silver being largely a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining.
However, demand from certain industries, such as the build-out of AI data centers, continues to boost consumption for high-performance servers and connectivity technologies. In contrast, the solar sector, a key industrial driver, is expected to see a 19 percent decline in silver demand due to manufacturers substituting copper for silver in photovoltaic cells.
Despite the price weakness, mining companies are reporting bumper profits. Canada's Teck Resources saw its gross profit at its Trail smelter surge from $42 million to $202 million in the second quarter, driven by higher prices for copper, zinc, and silver. India's Hindustan Zinc is also doubling down on silver, with the metal contributing nearly half of the company's EBITDA in the latest quarter.
The disconnect between near-term price pressure and long-term optimism is stark. J.P. Morgan expects an average silver price of roughly $81 for full-year 2026, while Goldman Sachs sees a range of $85 to $100 if geopolitical tensions escalate or inflation reaccelerates. The next major catalyst is the Federal Reserve's July 29 meeting, where the direction of monetary policy, and with it, silver's near-term fate, will become clearer.