Solar Industry Faces Critical Metal Shortage Amid Rapid Growth
The International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) has released a report highlighting the need for sustainable solar growth through recycling and replacing critical metals. The report models consumption of key materials such as aluminium, copper, indium, lead, silicon, silver, gold, tin, and zinc in various scenarios ranging from 29TWp to 75TWp of global solar deployments by 2050.
Dr Malte Vogt, co-author of the report, stated that while solar PV uses less material volume than fossil-based electricity systems, it requires different materials like silicon, indium, silver, copper, or tin. He expects solar PV to be the main electricity source in the 21st century.
The report estimates copper demand for solar deployments and manufacturing could reach 7-15 million tonnes by the mid-2040s, equivalent to 30-65% of current global annual production. Given the rate of copper mine expansion, the report projects a potential supply gap of 10.5-11.5 million metric tonnes by 2035.
Silver demand is expected to reach 15-30% of current global reserves between 2025-2050, with an estimated annual use for solar PV cells peaking at 9,000 metric tonnes. To mitigate this, efforts are being made to replace silver with copper in cell production due to cost and abundance.
The report suggests recycling end-of-life PV plants could provide a significant secondary source of silver for the industry, contributing 30-45% of all required silver by 2050. By 2050, recycling is expected to be around 50-80 times today's volume.