South African Farmers Face Costly Season Amid War and Weather Uncertainty

Farmers in South Africa are bracing for a potentially costly 2026/27 season due to various factors, including the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. The war has disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to higher prices for farm inputs such as fertiliser and fuel. According to recent data, local fertiliser prices have increased by an average of 20% from a year ago.

The situation is further complicated by weather conditions, with expectations of a strong El Niño remaining a major concern. While high soil moisture may support seed germination at the start of the season, concerns remain about the severity of the El Niño and potential heatwaves.

The grain industry is particularly vulnerable to these climatic shocks, as around 80% of crops are planted in rain-fed areas. In times of drought, feed prices increase significantly, leading to a decrease in livestock populations. The department of agriculture must work to revive access to Middle Eastern markets for South African beef exports.

The challenges facing the farming sector will not be limited to agriculture alone, with interlinked industries such as vehicles and agricultural machinery also feeling the effects of drought. With fiscal room potentially limited to support the sector during a drought, exploring alternative ways to aid farmers is crucial.