Southern Corn Crop Divide Threatens Local Markets
The Southern corn crop is facing a region-wide divide in terms of yield potential. According to USDA's Crop Progress and Condition Layers, most Southern corn entered the second half of July in fair-to-good condition, averaging a 3.56 rating on a scale from very poor (1) to excellent (5). The average masks a sharp divide between the Midsouth and the Carolinas.
The strongest county ratings clustered in northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley, with conditions near good from Arkansas through Mississippi and into northern Alabama and Tennessee. However, South Carolina was below fair (2.88), and North Carolina had the region's lowest rating, between poor and fair (2.81). The decline overlapped silking, making the Carolinas increasingly likely to experience below-trend yields and reduced production.
The lower expected yields in the Carolinas may matter more for local markets than for national corn prices because Southern production is small relative to the Corn Belt. A smaller local harvest could increase demand for imported grain, strengthen local basis, and raise delivered feed costs.