Soybeans Bounce Back: Record Production and Tight Stocks Support Rally
U.S. soybean futures rebounded on September 14 after Friday's USDA crop estimates triggered a sharp selloff, while corn remained under pressure.
The reaction matters for U.S. growers because the September balance sheet presents an unusual combination: record soybean production alongside relatively tight inventories and accelerating export demand.
USDA raised its national soybean yield estimate to 52.8 bushels per acre, compared with 52.7 bpa in August, setting a record and coming in above trade expectations.
Despite the larger crop, projected 2026-27 soybean ending stocks at 310 million bushels are below August's 320 million, preserving a tighter supply cushion.
Citing grain adviser Jon Scheve, analysts argue that the USDA numbers were not fundamentally bearish because carryout remains tight, putting $14 and potentially $15 soybeans within the longer-term range of possibilities.