Strait of Hormuz Oil Flow Discrepancy Throws Market Estimates into Question
A long-standing assumption in the oil market has been challenged by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who claims that the Strait of Hormuz is more open than thought. The waterway has been a point of contention between Iran and its adversaries, with numerous tankers being fired upon while attempting to transit the strait. However, Wright asserts that the seven-day average of oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz had increased to 9 million barrels per day as of August 8.
This contradicts ship-tracking data from services like Kpler and Windward Intelligence, which estimate around 4 million barrels per day are being extracted. The discrepancy has left Wall Street analysts questioning the accuracy of their tracking methods.
Some experts believe that shadow fleets, vessels that intentionally turn off their transponders to avoid detection, may be contributing to the disparity in estimates. These ships can be tracked using satellite imagery and AI, allowing services like Windward Intelligence to follow their movements even when they are not transmitting location data.