Summer Crop Outlook: Better Than Expected Despite Northern Hemisphere Weather

Weather in the Northern Hemisphere has been less than ideal this summer, but experts say it's unlikely to lead to a significant decline in grain and oilseed storage. Better-than-expected production potentials from China and India are contributing to a favorable outlook.

Despite chronic dryness in Western Europe, eastern parts of the continent are drying out as well. However, recent rain events have helped keep crops viable in the US Midwest, which was initially worried about hot, dry weather in the northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt.

The overall prospects for adversity through the end of August are low, except for some soybean, sorghum, and cotton areas in the Delta and southern US Plains, where dryness abounds. China has had a few bouts of dryness and excessive rain with flooding, but it's unlikely to have a big impact on production.

India's monsoon got off to a poor start, leading to speculation about a failing rainy season and production cuts. However, rainfall improved in July, and sufficient soil moisture has been in place for the bulk of India's summer grain and oilseed production areas.