Super El Niño Threatens Global Food Prices and Commodity Markets
A Super El Niño event could have significant implications for food prices and commodity markets. According to Jim Roemer, a meteorologist and Commodity Trading Advisor with over 35 years of experience, this type of event is different from a standard El Niño due to its impact on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM).
Roemer notes that during a super El Niño event, the Pacific ocean temperatures are not just warmer than normal, but other factors such as the SOI index and GLAAM also play a crucial role. He believes this is what sets a super El Niño apart from a standard one.
The potential impact of a super El Niño on food prices and commodity markets is significant. Roemer expects it to cause economic shock across the world due to inflation in various commodities such as grains, softs, and energy. He also notes that natural gas prices could collapse this winter with a strong El Niño.
On the other hand, Roemer sees potential upside for certain commodity markets during a super El Niño event. However, he emphasizes that these predictions are based on his experience and analysis of historical data.