'Super' El Nino's Impact on Global Food Supplies Mitigated by Decades of Farm Gains and Inventories

The global food system is better equipped to handle this year's 'super' El Nino due to decades of farm gains and inventories, according to analysts. Near-record grain inventories, technological advances, and the rise of key exporters such as Brazil and Russia have made the system more resilient.

Farm production has outpaced consumption and population growth since the 1980s, thanks to higher-yielding crop varieties, greater use of fertiliser, and improved irrigation and crop protection. This has lifted yields of staples such as rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans.

Even during drought conditions, better irrigation management and crop science mean that marketable yields can still be produced. Andrew Whitelaw of Australian agricultural consultancy Episode 3 noted, 'The potential impact on global food supplies and prices exists, but our improved preparedness means the disruptions are much less severe than they would have been in previous decades.'

However, dryness brought by El Nino has already disrupted crop planting across large parts of Asia, including India, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Shortages of fertiliser and diesel caused by the Iran war add to global food production risks.