TD Report Cautions Pipeline Predictions May Be Too Optimistic

A new oil pipeline to the West Coast would bring a 'meaningful' boost to Canada and Alberta's gross domestic product, but perhaps not as much as the provincial and federal governments are forecasting, according to a report from TD Economics.

The government analysis predicts a 0.6 per cent increase to the national economy by the 2040s and 3.5 per cent to Alberta's GDP. However, economists Marc Ercolao and Likeleli Seitlheko wrote that these figures should be viewed as 'proposal-stage estimates' from proponents with a clear interest in advancing development.

Using more conservative assumptions, the economists said the increase could be around 0.3 per cent nationally and two per cent provincially.

The pipeline would be developed, built, and operated by Crown-owned Trans Mountain Corp at an estimated cost of $35 billion to $44 billion, with the federal and provincial governments shouldering 90 per cent of the costs.