Tehran's Strait of Hormuz Gamble May Backfire

Tehran is staking everything on control of the Strait of Hormuz, but this gamble may backfire. According to an official briefed on the negotiations between Iran and Oman, Tehran will not conclude any agreement under threat. The delay in reaching an agreement with Oman on the Strait is mainly due to US interference and President Donald Trump's threats.

The agreement currently being discussed would provide for a temporary 60-day mechanism to regulate traffic through the Strait, but Tehran's objective is to maintain control of it at all costs. However, this is seen as a very risky gamble by experts. By asserting authority over one of the main maritime corridors through which the world's crude oil passes, Iran is banking on its ability to inflict damage on the US economy.

The Iranian leadership believes that Trump will eventually accept its terms in the run-up to the mid-term elections, but this assumption may be misplaced. According to Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, Tehran's maximalist stance will contribute to its isolation in the long term.

The Iranian armed forces have suffered significant losses since the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on February 28, but they have managed to keep Washington on its toes by disrupting shipping traffic in the Strait. However, the more moderate faction within the Iranian leadership is concerned that the naval blockade imposed by the US is pushing the country's economy to the brink of collapse.