Tehran's War of Leverage: Economic Pressure Trumps Military Confrontation

Iran's regime is employing a survival strategy that prioritizes maintaining an atmosphere of crisis over actual military damage. With four months of confrontation between Iran and the US, the conflict has entered a decisive phase, shifting focus from military losses to economic pressure.

The Strait of Hormuz plays a key role in this strategy as it allows Tehran to extend the costs of confrontation beyond Iranian borders, affecting global energy markets, insurance costs, and transport routes. By disrupting shipping, Tehran aims to create fear of widespread economic disruption, forcing Western governments to negotiate from a position of manufactured leverage.

However, this approach has a significant weakness: if the US responds with sustained naval blockades and broader economic containment, Iran's oil revenue, its main source of resilience, will come under direct pressure. This could be more damaging to the regime than physical destruction caused by military strikes.