Tensions Fuel Market Volatility Ahead of Fed Policy Meeting
A market analyst predicts volatile currency fluctuations and commodity prices in the coming week due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. The US dollar, crude oil, and gold are expected to be affected.
Ibrahim Assuaibi, a currency market analyst, noted that exchange rates and commodity prices will remain unstable in the next week. He attributes this volatility to developments in geopolitical conflicts, the direction of the US Federal Reserve's policy, and the trade war.
Assuaibi pointed out that the trade war has resumed after President Trump announced additional import tariffs of 10-12.5 percent on 60 US trading partners, including Indonesia, following an investigation into labor regulations related to forced labor. The analyst also mentioned conflicts between Iran and the US as well as Russia and Ukraine, which are expected to continue.
The impact of rising crude oil prices will be felt domestically, according to Assuaibi. If oil prices exceed the budget assumption of USD 83 per barrel, demand for US dollars will increase, putting further strain on the State Budget during the corporate dividend distribution season in the second half of the year.