Thai Government Cuts Oil Price Forecast Amid Weaker Demand

The Fiscal Policy Office of Thailand has revised its forecast for Dubai crude oil prices in 2026, lowering it to $82 per barrel from an earlier estimate of $91. This change reflects weaker demand and a recovery in global supplies that is easing pressure on the market.

The revised forecast places the average price within a range of $77-$87 per barrel for 2026. Despite the reduction, this estimate remains significantly higher than the 2025 average of $69.40.

According to Warotai Kosolpisitkul, international economic adviser at the Fiscal Policy Office, the $82 estimate is based on a conservative assessment that has already taken into account major geopolitical and supply risks.