Trinidad and Tobago Gas Supply Set for Potential Recovery in 2027

Trinidad and Tobago's energy sector is facing another difficult year before potentially significant recovery in natural gas supply from 2027, according to energy economist Gregory McGuire. McGuire's reading of the data points to a genuine basis for the government's expectation of better gas availability in 2027, with several major upstream projects already sanctioned and targeting first gas.

However, McGuire's assessment is not a prediction of an easy recovery. The country is entering the 2027 fiscal year after losing major petrochemical operations, weaker gas production, reduced export earnings, and significant employment losses. Several potential sources of future gas also carry commercial, geopolitical, or development risks.

McGuire identifies Shell's Manatee and bpTT's Ginger developments as the two most important near-term additions, with estimated resources of 2.7 trillion cubic feet and peak production of 604 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d) and 360 mmcf/d, respectively. These projects alone could deliver close to 1 billion cubic feet per day at peak.