Trump Predicts Iran War Will End After US Midterms

US President Donald Trump has repeated his claim that the war with Iran will end immediately after the US midterm elections on November 7. However, despite his assurances, rising gas prices are likely to hurt Republican electoral prospects.

The global benchmark for oil prices, Brent crude, jumped to over $100 per barrel this week, in response to ongoing military action between the US and Iran.

Iran's leaders appear to be taking a cautious approach, using escalation as a controlled instrument of coercive bargaining rather than an end in itself. This is according to Mohammad Ghaedi, a Middle East expert at George Washington University.

Ghaedi explained that Iran wants to demonstrate its ability to threaten US forces and disrupt maritime traffic in the region without triggering a larger American response. The regime's preferred outcome would be a return to the Memorandum of Understanding signed in Islamabad in June, but this seems increasingly unlikely due to the first provision requiring an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.

Tehran has little interest in escalating the conflict further, especially with Israel's elections approaching on October 27 and the US midterms just days later. Senior advisers to President Trump are reportedly urging him to limit any escalation of the conflict, fearing political repercussions for Republicans at the midterms.