Trump Shifts Focus to Economic Campaign Against Iran

US President Donald Trump is shifting his strategy towards Iran from military pressure to an economic campaign, aiming to force concessions through sanctions. According to Dr. Raz Zimmt, Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), this approach reflects a return to the 'maximum pressure' policy pursued during Trump's first term after withdrawing from the nuclear deal in May 2018.

The economic campaign is already having an impact on Iranian oil exports, with central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati acknowledging that oil exports have almost completely halted. Additionally, two of Iran's major trading partners, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, have changed their approach to circumventing sanctions.

Iranian officials have dismissed Trump's statement as a diversionary tactic, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arguing that continuing a failed policy would lead to further failures and fuel Iranian hostility. Meanwhile, reports of a severe crisis in the food market are multiplying, with food prices rising by over 128% in July.

While economic pressure is seen as a means of changing Iran's policies, there is no evidence that Tehran is prepared to soften its positions. Iran still has tools for escalation, including attacks on tankers and US forces in the Strait of Hormuz.