Trump vs. Trackers: Dispute Over Oil Shipments Through Strait of Hormuz Intensifies

Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran are affecting energy markets, with crude prices rising above $95 a barrel. The dispute centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that is crucial for global oil supplies.

The Trump administration claims that more than 17 million barrels of oil moved through the strait on Monday, describing it as a record since the conflict began. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that ships have been averaging 30 vessels per night and that many movements are not detected by commercial tracking services.

However, independent trackers paint a different picture. Kpler reported a sharp decline in traffic through the strait on Monday, with only five vessels crossing. Oxford University's PortWatch project has shown fewer than five oil tanker crossings per day, with total vessel crossings remaining in the single digits for weeks.

TankerTrackers.com estimated that an average of roughly 4.9 million barrels of oil per day has moved through Hormuz since a US-Iran ceasefire broke down in mid-July. This estimate is far below Wright's claim of more than 17 million barrels on Monday.