Trump's Oil Price Predictions Fall Flat

Oil markets have largely ignored US President Donald Trump's claims about the status of the Strait of Hormuz, despite his frequent posts on Truth Social.

A study by Axios found that during a six-month period between February and August, Trump made 269 posts mentioning Iran or the Strait of Hormuz. However, these posts had little to no effect on oil prices in the long term.

Oil analyst Ben Cahill said that markets 'overreacted' to some of Trump's early posts, but have since tuned out his social media claims. According to Cahill, there is a strong correlation between the market and reality on the ground, and Trump's posts rarely reflect this reality.

The study found that in the five minutes after Trump made a post about Iran or the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices would often jump by an average of 0.73%. However, this effect is diminishing over time.